The Indian rupee is expected to remain rangebound this week and move in sync with the dollar index, while bond yields may witness some uptick amid a lack of any major trigger.
The rupee ended at 82.1615 against the dollar on Friday, rising about 0.5% for the week, its best in four weeks.
The pattern is likely to continue unless the rupee moves above the 81.70-level convincingly, said said Arnob Biswas, FX research head at SMC Global.
He expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) would likely intervene between 81.70 and 81.80, adding that it’s the major reason why importers are buying dollars at current dips.
Fed speakers and Federal Open Market Committee participants will stir away from public remarks as the pre-meeting blackout period has kicked off, ING analysts said in a note.
Meanwhile, the benchmark India 2033 bond yield ended at 7.0910% on Friday, having eased seven basis points (bps) last week, after rising an aggregate 12 bps in previous three weeks.
Yields dropped last week tracking U.S. peers, after softer-than-expected inflation reading raised bets that the Fed will pause rate hikes after a final increase in July.
Traders expect the benchmark yield to move in the 7.08%-7.15% range this week, as the next major trigger in the Fed’s policy decision is due only next week.
Still, yields came off their lows as surging food prices accelerated India’s June retail inflation rate to 4.81%, snapping four months of easing and higher than 4.31% for May and 4.58% expected in a Reuters poll.
With a further rise in inflation expected, the RBI may turn more cautious with interest rate management.
“Caution in declaring victory over inflation given risk to food inflation, motivation to avoid premature easing in financial conditions and high core liquidity surplus together argue for status quo on policy in August,” ICICI Securities Primary Dealership said in a note.
Heavy upcoming debt supply will also challenge investor appetite, as witnessed in Friday’s auction demand, wherein demand for the benchmark bond was slightly weaker than anticipated.