Nifty to reclaim 19,800 or extend losses? See GIFT Nifty, FII data, F&O ban, crude, more before market opens

GIFT Nifty recorded a 0.20% loss during Monday’s early trading session, with a value of 19,727.5 indicating a negative opening for domestic indices NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex. Benchmark indices NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex snapped their winning streak and closed in the red on Friday. Nifty 50 tanked 234.15 points to settle at 19,745, while Sensex gave up 1.31% to close at 66,684.26, almost 900 points lower.

“The weak guidance from Infosys cast a shadow over the outlook of the Indian IT sector, causing a delay in Nifty’s pursuit of the 20,000 mark. While the heavyweights surrendered to the bears, the small caps demonstrated resilience. Global markets presented a mixed picture, with the US market struggling due to weak earnings, while UK retail sales exceeded expectations with a 0.7% MoM growth,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

Asian Markets

Shares in the Asia-Pacific region were trading mixed on Monday. China’s Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component were in the red, with Shanghai down by 0.23% and Shenzhen slipping 0.27%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.25%. South Korea’s Kospi surged 0.36% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tanked 1.15%. The Taiwan Weighted index recorded a loss of 0.11%.

Crude Oil

Oil prices eased on Monday as traders await more rate hike cues from U.S. and European central banks, with tightening supply and hopes for Chinese stimulus underpinning Brent at $80 a barrel.

FII/DII Data

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth net Rs 1,998.77 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth net Rs 1,290.73 crore on 21 July, according to the provisional data available on the NSE.

F&O Ban

The National Stock Exchange has Manappuram Finance, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Delta Corp, L&T Housing Finance, Balrampur Chini Mills, and Punjab National Bank securities on its F&O ban list for 24 July. According to the NSE, stocks are prohibited in the F&O sector when they have exceeded 95% of the market-wide position limit (MWPL). During the F&O ban period, no new positions are permitted for F&O contracts in that stock.

Bank Nifty Outlook

“Bank Nifty was volatile; it traded in a range and closed down ~110 points. The hourly momentum indicator has triggered a negative crossover which can lead to consolidation in the short term, however, the overall uptrend is still intact and we believe that this dip is a pullback in the overall up move and not a trend reversal. On the upside we expect the Bank Nifty to target levels of 46,500 in the short term,” said Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Technical View

“NSE Nifty 50 formed a bull candle with a long upper shadow on the weekly time frame chart, which signalled presence of stiff resistance at the 20K mark. The immediate support of 10 day EMA is at 19,650 levels and important 20 day EMA support is at 19425 levels. The said 20 day EMA has been offering support for the market for the past three months. Hence, there is a possibility of an upside bounce in the market on further weakness from here. On the way up, the area of 19,850-19,900 levels could act as a stiff resistance.” said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

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