In 2024, which is just around the corner, the country is set to witness one of the decade’s most awaited events- the Ram Temple’s inauguration in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh.
On the other hand, voters in three of the five states where polls were held recently have given the BJP a thumbs up, turning the lead-up to the country’s general elections, expected to be held over several weeks in April–May 2024, a more keenly watched affair.
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If 2023 was any indication, the coming year, which will see electoral battles of epochal proportions across the country, will prove to be equally momentous for the BJP. Let’s have a look at what lies ahead for one of the biggest political parties in the world:
Ram Temple consecration
The inauguration of Ram Mandir in Uttar Pradesh’s Ayodhya will mark the fulfillment of the BJP’s ‘mandir wahi banwayenge’ (we promise to build the temple there) campaign and will come just a few months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections 2024.
Ayodhya awaits the grand opening of the Ram temple after a series of legal and political battles. The consecration of the Ram Temple is scheduled to take place on January 22, 2024. The opening of the Ram Temple will be a key element in the BJP’s narrative for its 2024 campaign. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the prime mover behind the building of the temple, is likely to be the main beneficiary of the public sentiment built around the religious issue.
With this, the Modi government will have delivered on two of its core ideological promises ahead of the elections―building the Ram temple and the removal of Article 370. The BJP’s weapons for the upcoming elections are welfarism and development backed by cultural and spiritual nationalism.
Lok Sabha elections 2024
Will ‘Kashi, Ayodhya, Mathura’ fetch the Bharatiya Janata Party 350 seats in the Lok Sabha elections in April-May 2024? Will the party’s traditional Hindutva plank strike a chord with the people in the parliamentary polls next year? The answer is, possibly, yes.
The 2024 Lok Sabha polls will see the Narendra Modi-led NDA – which is seeking a third-consecutive term – take on the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) that consists of 27 parties including Indian National Congress, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), Janata Dal (United), Shiv Sena (UBT), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Communist Party of India (Marxist), Samajwadi Party, Indian Union Muslim League, Communist Party of India, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
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The results of the December 3 state assembly polls have already provided a big boost to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The party had an emphatic victory in the Hindi belt states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. The lone victory for the Opposition Indian National Congress (INC) came in the southern state of Telangana. Neither the BJP nor the Congress party figured prominently in the Mizoram battle.
These results confirm what is already common knowledge: as far as the 2024 parliamentary elections are concerned, the BJP remains firmly in pole position. The advantage is also principally driven by PM Modi’s enduring popularity.
Battle for the States
The coming year will also witness assembly election in eight states – Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir. These elections will be yet another litmus test for the national acceptability of an expanding BJP.
The saffron party is currently in power in 12 of the 28 states in India and is in the ruling coalition in four others. The Congress, on the other hand, is left with only three states – Telangana, where it won by dislodging the KCR government, Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh. In the assembly elections next year, both parties will try to prove their mettle and expand their territory.
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Jammu and Kashmir election battlefield
Jammu and Kashmir has completed five years without an elected government. People in J&K are waiting for the necessary ritual of Assembly polls that would give them back their legislative body lost after the Centre scrapped the special status and turned it into a Union Territory. The last time Assembly elections were held was back in 2014.
The Opposition claims the BJP is delaying the polls, fearing losing in both the Kashmir Valley and its so-called stronghold, Jammu. They also allege that the BJP wants to defer the polls as long as possible to accomplish its “nationalist agenda” during the central rule.
The new Jammu and Kashmir Assembly has 114 seats, of which 24 are in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir. Of the rest 90 where elections could be held, 47 are in the Kashmir Valley and the rest 43 in the Jammu region.
When the Assembly was dissolved in November 2018, the initial expectation was that the state election would happen along with the Lok Sabha polls in April-May 2019. But the Modi government had other plans.
The Election Commission deferred the Assembly polls citing the constraints over the availability of central forces and other logistics. Three months later on August 5, 2019, the Modi government revoked the state’s special status, sending shockwaves across the state and beyond. Since then, J&K has continued to be under direct central rule.
After much delay and criticism, the Supreme Court in December 2023, directed the Election Commission (EC) to hold elections in Jammu and Kashmir by September 30, 2024. The Supreme Court made the judgment while hearing a batch of petitions challenging the scrapping of Article 370, which granted special status to the erstwhile state.
A five-judge Constitution bench led by Chief Justice DY Chandrachud said that direct elections were one of the paramount features of democracy and could not be withheld.
“We direct that steps shall be taken to conduct elections for the Legislative Assembly of Jammu and Kashmir by September 30, 2024, and statehood shall be restored as soon as possible,” the bench said.
One Nation One Election
Up next on BJP’s agenda is the implementation of ‘One Nation, One Election’ reform. The central idea behind the reform is to synchronize the timing of Lok Sabha and State Assembly elections across all States to reduce the frequency of polls throughout the country.
This concept was in practice till 1967, but it was disrupted due to various reasons such as defections, dismissals, and dissolutions of government.
Over the years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pushed strongly for the idea of simultaneous Lok Sabha and state assembly polls, and the decision to task Ram Nath Kovind to look into it underscores the government’s seriousness as a host of elections approaches.
“India should hold simultaneous parliamentary and state assembly polls,” former President and the chairman of a high-level committee examining the possibility of holding “one nation, one election”, Ram Nath Kovind, had said recently, urging all political parties to support the idea in the national interest.
Asserting that no particular political party will be benefiting from “one nation, one election”, Kovind said, “If implemented, the party which is in power at the Centre will benefit, be it the BJP or the Congress or any other party. There is no discrimination.”