Time magazine has put it succinctly: “2024 is not just an election year. It’s perhaps the election year.” Globally, more voters than ever in history will head to the polls this year as, starting with Taiwan in January and running through the US elections in November, over 40 countries representing 41% of the world’s population and 42% of its gross domestic product will have a chance to elect their leaders. In that sense, 2024 will be Democracy’s Year. Under normal circumstances, that’s a cause for cheer as it sends out a strong signal that democracy, the most cherished possession of human beings, is alive and kicking. But these are extraordinary times—with two brutal wars raging, inflation still remaining a tough challenge and economies going through frequent phases of uncertainty, electoral outcomes have a huge potential for further disruption.
First up will be Taiwan’s January 13 presidential elections, which could set the tone for US-China relations for years to come, with tensions likely to escalate further if the current Taiwanese Vice-President wins as forecast. But the biggest example of election-led disruption with a profound impact on the global economy would be the US presidential race culminating in November. After a tumultuous year, the US and China ended 2023 with an uneasy detente. But that fig leaf will be blown away if Donald Trump returns to power. Few have forgotten how a tense US-China relationship gave way to an all-out trade war under the former president. As Trump means unpredictability, there could be an unstoppable escalation of tension between the two countries with disastrous consequences.
That is of course for the future. The first half of the new year will be all about a political discourse that is more shrill and nastier. The politics of polarisation, of muscular nationalism and of competitive populism could return with a vengeance. The Modi government recently announced the extension of a pandemic-era scheme to provide free food grains to 800 million citizens for an additional five years. While lavish welfare promises do not guarantee victory, the BJP will likely look to further innovate in this domain ahead of 2024, given the opposition’s reckless response (seen ahead of the state elections) to its welfare gambit. So, different shades of giveaways—call it freebies, cash-transfers, or guarantees—will dominate the political and economic narrative for the first six months of the year. The nation will be expected to carry the can after that.