Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the star of the tech world in 2023, and there is no reason why the momentum will not continue in the new year. From moving beyond chatbots and image generators to embracing open-source and multi-modal capability, 2024 will be the year when the world will realise the true potential of generative AI. Similarly, with Apple jumping into mixed reality, there is a lot to be expected in that space as well. Also, 2023 saw the launch of Chandrayaan-3, India’s third lunar mission, and hence, the interest in space tech, too, is expected to continue. In fact, with enough happening in other spheres such as satellite internet and cryptocurrency, we can expect 2024 to be fully packed in the realm of technology.
AI to take centrestage
Since the launch of ChatGPT-4, a slew of AI startups have hit the headlines. With the sector being hot from the perspective of investments and innovation, we can expect to see more startups launching in the coming year with their own set of innovative AI solutions.
Another trend that is currently underway is the shift towards open-source AI, which allows developers to inspect and alter the architecture, while also building upon each other’s work. The launch of large language models (LLMs) such as Meta’s Llama 2 substantiates this trend.
Speaking of LLMs, there has been much talk about it in India, especially what is termed as India AI. Startup Sarvam AI has released OpenHathi-Hi-0.1, an open-source large language model for Hindi. Meanwhile, Ola founder Bhavish Aggarwal, too, has announced the launch of the LLM Krutrim. “Very excited to share what Krutrim has been working on! India’s first AI. Full stack AI tech made in India. AI will transform everything, touch our economic, cultural lives so deeply. This time instead of using western products, India will build our own!” he wrote on X. Also, the Union ministry of electronics and information technology (Meity) is also set to announce an AI policy—India AI Programme—on January 10. A crucial aspect of it would be around creating datasets in languages spoken in India.
Then there is Apple and its trademark pattern of waiting, watching, and coming up with a product that completely blows everyone’s minds. It did it with its mixed-reality headset, the Vision Pro, and there is no reason why it wouldn’t do it again. While the Cupertino tech giant always maintains secretiveness around its launches, reports suggest that it is on track to spend $1 billion per year on developing its generative AI products. A Bloomberg report goes on to say that the company is looking to use AI to improve Siri, Messages and Apple Music. Hence, Apple is expected to jump onto the AI bandwagon in the new year, and whatever product it launches will only make this space more exciting.
Politics & technology to go hand in hand
With over two billion people across several nations heading to polls, 2024 will be no ordinary year. We will also see an increased interplay between politics and technology in the coming year, as AI has already started to show its impact on the upcoming polls. Recently, former Pakistan PM Imran Khan, who is in prison over corruption charges, addressed a virtual election through an AI-generated clip. According to reports, Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party used his existing speech samples to generate digital voice for the campaign. While this was one use case of AI, the rise of deepfakes, especially those involving political figures, is a major concern. Earlier this year, images showing former US President Donald Trump resisting arrest were widely circulated online. Later, they were revealed to be AI generated. The role of AI-powered deepfakes in the 2023 presidential
elections in Turkey was also much talked about, and will remain
concerning in 2024 as well.
Much of the onus will lie on the tech companies, and some of them are already taking some significant steps. Google has recently announced that it will restrict the types of poll-related queries that Bard, its AI chatbot, and search generative experience can generate responses for. The company said that it will “work with an increased focus on the role artificial intelligence (AI) might play” regarding the upcoming elections. The restrictions will come into effect by early 2024. Last month, Meta had also said it was barring political campaigns and advertisers in other regulated industries from using its new generative AI advertising products.
With the technology advancing at an unprecedented rate, a host of policies and legislations on AI regulation can be expected across countries. The aim appears to be threefold: to aid technological advancement, attract investments, and protect their citizens from inadvertent impacts of AI. While deliberations upon such policies are already underway, some are moving faster than the others. For example, the European Union, earlier this month, agreed on what is seen as a landmark legislation to regulate AI. US President Joe Biden, too, unveiled proposals in October, which included provisions including AI-generated content to be watermarked.
All eyes on AR/VR devices
Among the biggest tech launches in the coming year will be Apple’s Vision Pro headset. The mixed-reality headset, which it refers to as a “spacial computer”, could see a February launch, according to media reports. This will also mark the first time, since the 2015 launch of its smartwatches, that the Cupertino-based company will be entering a new category. The $3,499 headset, upon unveiling by the company this year, was reported to be way ahead of its peers.
With its Quest headsets, and thanks to limited competition, Meta currently dominates the AR/VR headset market. However, we can expect the competition to heat up with Apple, arguably the most influential tech company, entering the fold. Also, if Vision Pro becomes a hit, Apple will successfully convince the customers of their need for such a device, something its competitors have struggled with. Overall, 2024 looks promising for this space, as the International Data Corporation (IDC) said in a report that the year will see 46.4% growth in the shipments of AR/VR headsets after a decline of 8.3% year over year in 2023. “The return to form is thanks to a full year’s availability of Meta’s Quest 3 as well as Apple’s Vision Pro, which is expected to bring lots of attention,” the report read.
In the coming year, Meta, too, is expected to launch its first AR glasses. According to reports, they would work independent from other devices, meaning that the glasses wouldn’t require a smartphone to function. Meta’s another pair of glasses called the Hypernova are also expected to debut in the coming year.
After mixed year, digital assets to gain currency
While cryptocurrencies, since their inception, have had a topsy-turvy ride, 2024 could see an increased acceptance of digital assets, but with respect to Central Bank Digital Currencies, or CBDCs. Unlike cryptocurrencies, CBDCs are not decentralised, but are digital currencies issued by the central banks of countries. “The Bahamas, Jamaica and Nigeria have already introduced CBDCs. And more than 100 countries are in the exploration stage,” as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Hence, in 2024, we can expect several countries to make strides in this space. “Central bankers in Brazil, China, the Euro area, India and the United Kingdom are at the forefront,” says the IMF, which will only mark the increased acceptance of digital assets.
Cryptocurrencies have been notorious for guzzling an enormous amount of energy during their minting process. In 2022, at its peak, Bitcoin reportedly consumed the same amount of energy as Finland. However, steps have been taken to reduce the environmental impact, the forefront of which is Ethereum, the decentralised blockchain that shifted its to proof-of-stake algorithm. We can also expect others to follow suit.
Meanwhile, cyberattacks remain a big concern, as, according to reports, the cost of cyber attacks on the global economy is expected to top $10.5 trillion by the end of the coming year. With generative AI, such attacks are only expected to become more sophisticated, targeted, and more prevalent. Hence, we can also expect greater effort to combat that, especially from organisations. In fact, Gartner, a research and consulting firm, has predicted that by 2026, 70% of the boards will include at least one member with expertise in the field.
In the light of the Russia-Ukraine war, which also saw a rise in cyberattacks, we can also expect greater efforts and investments to combat that at the national level.
Satellite internet & space tech to find more connect
It was a landmark moment when India’s lunar mission—Chandrayaan-3—soft landed on the moon’s South Pole, becoming the first nation to have achieved the feat. The moon is expected to remain in focus in the coming year as well, with both governments and private companies making strides into space.
First and foremost is Japan’s SLIM mission, which is targeting January 19 for its moon landing. Notably, if the mission is successful, Japan will become the fifth country to reach the lunar surface. While China plans to launch its Chang’e 6 mission in May, NASA’s Artemis II, which will fly a human crew, is planned for a November launch. However, the most exciting is NASA’s VIPER rover, which will head towards the lunar south pole. Apart from them, private companies have also planned their lunar mission for the coming year, keeping the race to the moon a busy space in 2024.
Notably, SpaceX’s performance in the coming year can be crucial for determining the overall investments in this sector. 2024 could be the year when we could see the launch of the much-anticipated Starship. If successful, it will only bolster much confidence, investments, and efforts by private entities into the space. Also, SpaceX’s satellite internet venture Starlink was expected to go public in 2024, which founder Elon Musk ultimately denied. However, it would be interesting to watch how this space will play out, which could completely reshape the investment landscape in this space.
Meanwhile, steered by companies such as SpaceX, OneWeb, and Amazon, there will be much happening in the advanced satellite constellation space as well. In 2024, we expect a further proliferation of these constellations, which aim to provide global broadband coverage. While SpaceX has remained the leader in this space, Amazon, too, is catching up as it is set to launch its first internet satellites to space in the first half of 2024. “With initial testing complete, Project Kuiper is on track to begin mass satellite production ahead of a full-scale deployment starting in the first half of 2024, before entering beta testing with select customers later in the year,” it said. Also, what hints at greater acceptance are the provisions in the recently-passed telecommunications bill, which allow spectrum allocation for satellite-based services without participating in auctions.