As 2023 draws to a close, having witnessed intense elections in five states—Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan—the attention now shifts to the highly anticipated 18th Lok Sabha elections. This nationwide battle for the 543 seats in the lower house of Parliament, alongside Assembly elections in eight states—Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand—will mark the onset of a year filled with high political drama.
While the incumbent BJP aims to extend its tenure for another term, the newly formed alliance of 28 parties, the INDIA alliance, is determined to dethrone the ruling party from the national stage. After conquering the Hindi heartland in 2023, the BJP’s aspirations rise alongside PM Modi’s popularity. Will welfare schemes and the ‘Hindutva’ agenda secure them another victory, or will the united voice of regional parties, wielding the ‘caste census’ card, halt the saffron run?
Lok Sabha Elections: Modi vs INDIA Bloc
The approaching Lok Sabha elections, slated between April and May 2024 and concluding before June 16, are poised to see a battle for 543 seats. India’s political scene has undergone significant polarisation with the rise of two major alliances: the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA)and the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc. Among the participating national parties—BJP, INC, CPI(M), BSP, NPP, and AAP—only BSP stands apart, refusing to affiliate with either alliance.
The NDA, currently in control of the Indian government and various states, comprises the dominant Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and fluctuating regional party memberships. Notable partners like Shiv Sena, LJP, SAD, JD(U), and Apna Dal are part of this coalition. Historically, the NDA encountered defections from significant partners like TDP and AIADMK. Presently, with Narendra Modi as its primary face, the NDA aims to contest and triumph in the elections.
Also Read:‘Start from zero’: Shiv Sena sets stage for hard bargain with Congress on seat-sharing in Maharashtra
On the other hand, The INDIA coalition, led by the Indian National Congress, aims to replace the ruling BJP-led NDA from the centre. With 28 political parties, including Trinamool Congress, DMK, RJD, various JD factions, Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP, and INC, this alliance commands a diverse support base. During the 4th INDIA bloc meeting, some opposition leaders pressed for finalising seat-sharing discussions by December 31 for the upcoming polls. West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal also mooted the name of Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge as a potential PM candidate. However, Kharge emphasised the importance of winning the elections first before addressing leadership decisions.
Eight State Assembly Elections 2024
Arunachal Pradesh Elections 2024: Tenure (June 3, 2019 – June 2, 2024)
The elections in the state are scheduled before April 2024 to elect 60 members of the legislative assembly. The state is currently governed by BJP’s Chief Minister Pema Khandu, who aims to maintain the party’s stronghold after securing 41 out of 60 seats in 2019, while the Congress won only 4 seats.
Sikkim Elections 2024: Tenure (June 3, 2019 – June 2, 2024)
Sikkim’s upcoming Legislative Assembly election, expected before April 2024, will elect 32 members. In 2019, Sikkim Krantikari Morcha won 17 seats, forming the government with Prem Singh Tamang as Chief Minister, while the Sikkim Democratic Front won only 15 seats, leading to SKM forming the state government, and Prem Singh assuming the office.
Andhra Pradesh Elections 2024: Tenure (June 12, 2019 – June 11, 2024)
Scheduled to be held before May 2024 to elect all 175 members of the state’s legislative Assembly. The incumbent YSRCP is led by Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, and the TDP is currently under Nara Chandrababu Naidu. The incumbent YSRCP, led by Chief Minister Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, is looking to defend its 2019 landslide victory, where they secured a staggering 151 seats out of 175, compared to the TDP’s 23 seats. Notably, Congress and BJP failed to win any seats in the state.
Odisha Elections 2024: Tenure (June 25, 2019 – June 24, 2024)
The state gears up for the elections around on or before June 2024 to elect all 147 members of the state assembly. In the 2019 elections, the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD swept the polls with a massive 112 seats, leaving the BJP with 23 seats and Congress at 9, with Naveen Patnaik assuming the office as chief minister.
Haryana Elections 2024: Tenure (November 4, 2019 – November 3, 2024)
The state is gearing up for elections before October 2024, with all 90 seats in contention. BJP seeks to maintain its previous success after securing 40 seats in the last elections. Forming a government post-election, BJP allied with the Jannayak Janta Party (10 seats) and seven Independent MLAs, securing a total majority of seats, surpassing the INC’s 31 seats.
Maharashtra Elections 2024: Tenure (November 27, 2019 – November 26, 2024)
As Maharashtra heads towards the October 2024 elections to elect all 288 members, its political landscape remains uncertain. In the 2019 elections, the NDA alliance comprising the BJP (105 seats) and Shiv Sena (56 seats) secured a clear majority. However, a subsequent split occurred, leading Shiv Sena to form the MVA coalition with NCP and Congress. In June 2022, internal conflicts within Shiv Sena resulted in BJP-backed Shinde assuming the Chief Minister’s position, succeeding Uddhav Thackeray.
Jharkhand Elections 2024: Tenure (January 6, 2020 – January 5, 2025)
Jharkhand is warming up for elections sometime between November- December 2024. The incumbent JMM-Congress alliance, with incumbent Hemant Soren, will aim to extend its term after claiming victory in the 2019 elections with 47 seats. In the 2019 Jharkhand Legislative Assembly elections, the Mahagathbandhan alliance, a powerful coalition of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Congress, and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), emerged victorious, securing a majority of 81 slated seats. The JMM, with its 30 seats, led the alliance, followed by Congress with 16 and RJD with 1.
Jammu and Kashmir
The Supreme Court’s directive to restore the statehood has set the stage for elections in Jammu and Kashmir by September 30, 2024. Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha oversees a region that has been without an elected government for six years. Following the 2014 Assembly elections, no single party secured a clear majority, however, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) emerged as the single largest party, winning 28 seats out of 87. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 25 seats. Following negotiations, a coalition government was formed between the PDP and the BJP. Mufti Mohammad Sayeed from the PDP became the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, with support from the BJP.
Also Read:Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Opinion poll predicts hat-trick for Modi, limits INDIA bloc to 163 seats
Lok Sabha Elections 2019
The seven-phase elections held between April 11 and May 19, 2019, resulted in a landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), clinching 303 out of 543 seats in the 17th Lok Sabha. With a historic 67% voter turnout among 912 million eligible voters, the BJP secured 37.36% of the popular vote, the highest since 1989. The BJP-led NDA secured a total of 353 seats, while the Congress party managed to secure only 52 seats. Additionally, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) attained 91 seats. Other political parties collectively obtained 98 seats. The outcomes of the elections slated in 2024 will not only determine India’s governance for the next five years but will also profoundly shape the country’s political trajectory in the long run.